10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Rises to 4.97%, Approaching 5% Threshold

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.97% on September 11, nearing the psychological 5% level, marking the highest point since 2023. This week, the yield increased by 18 basis points, influenced by market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, which are affected by upcoming U.S. inflation data. The rise in yield may attract bargain buyers but could also trigger further selling, impacting global markets. Traders are facing pressures from rising oil prices and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's target. The market anticipates about a 70% probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 16. Padhraic Garvey, head of Americas research at ING, stated that a 5% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is now a foregone conclusion, and the bond market is in a concerning period.

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