Global Prices Expected to Rise by 0.3%, Driven by Energy and Food Price Shocks
Analysis suggests that global prices are being stimulated by rising energy and food prices due to war and abnormal climate conditions. JP Morgan predicts that the global inflation rate could increase by 0.3 percentage points by 2027, citing the El Niño phenomenon and rising energy prices as key factors. The rise in global food prices due to El Niño could reach up to 0.7 percentage points, and when factoring in the increase in energy prices due to the Iran war, food price inflation could reach between 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points. Additionally, the rising costs of diesel, fertilizers, and food packaging materials are reported to be impacting food prices. JP Morgan analyzed that if food price inflation reaches an annualized rate of 5% in the first half of 2027, the global headline inflation rate could increase by 0.6 percentage points, and the pace of inflation slowdown next year could be delayed by 0.3 percentage points annually. South Korea is also expected to be affected by this trend, with costs for grains, feed, and energy potentially impacting consumer prices. UBS has stated that the Middle East war, reduced energy stocks, and insufficient European gas reserves are putting pressure on agricultural production. In the financial markets, interest rates are acting as a major variable, and rising raw material prices could pressure corporate margins and reduce consumer purchasing power.
-- Price
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