Weakened Employment Resilience Alters Rate Hike Logic, CPI Becomes Pressure Test for Policy Framework
On September 8, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink, analyzed that 162,000 jobs were added in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%, which undermines the logic for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes. Market focus shifts to this week's CPI: strong employment does not necessarily mean a rate hike is required, but it provides greater flexibility for policy. Warsh rejected any pre-commitment at Jackson Hole, and this week's inflation data will serve as the first stress test for the new policy framework. If core CPI does not show a significant decline, remaining inactive may damage the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation credibility.
This week, risk assets are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with direction chosen after the CPI announcement. If core inflation gently declines, the probability of a rate hike will quickly decrease, and BTC is expected to break through $82,500, with the U.S. stock growth sector rebounding simultaneously; if core inflation accelerates again, the market will further price in a rate hike in September, and U.S. Treasury yields may test 5%, while BTC could fall back to $74,000—$77,000, with high-valuation AI, Neocloud, and altcoins facing greater pressure.
The baseline scenario for September is "interest rate shock in the first half of the month, stabilization and recovery after the FOMC," with BTC expected to mainly operate in the range of $74,000—$88,000. Currently, the dollar has not strengthened significantly with the rate hike expectations, and BTC remains around $80,000, indicating some resilience in the market; however, before long-term yields decline, risk assets do not have the macro conditions for sustained unilateral increases.
-- Price
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