CoinMetrics said Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has climbed to 0.56, its highest level since 2020, pointing to a stronger alignment between BTC and traditional safe-haven dynamics than with tech-linked risk assets.

The report described Bitcoin as increasingly behaving like a scarce asset similar to gold, rather than moving primarily in tandem with technology stocks. In the same comparison, the correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and the US dollar was said to have approached zero, underscoring a broader change in cross-asset relationships.

CoinMetrics attributed the tighter Bitcoin-gold relationship to shared macro drivers, including currency depreciation concerns, national debt worries and expectations around real interest rates. The report also said dollar and gold flows, alongside ETF-related capital movements, have helped increase synchronization between the two assets.

The firm noted that higher Bitcoin-gold correlation has appeared before. It said the relationship strengthened again in 2023 during the failure of regional banks in the US and wider financial-system instability, when investors were more focused on defensive positioning and monetary conditions.

CoinMetrics also warned that Bitcoin could come under pressure if interest rates continue to rise. The macro backdrop remains in focus after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm employment rose by 162,000 in August. The next scheduled data point highlighted in the report is the US August CPI release, which could reinforce expectations for tighter policy if it comes in above market expectations.

Why It Matters

This correlation shift matters because it bears on how investors classify Bitcoin inside a broader portfolio. If BTC is increasingly traded alongside gold on inflation, dollar and real-rate expectations, that would mark a meaningful change from the long-standing view of Bitcoin as mostly a high-beta extension of tech sentiment.

It also matters for market structure. When ETF flows and macro hedging activity become more important drivers, Bitcoin can become more sensitive to the same policy signals that move traditional stores of value. That does not make the relationship permanent, but it raises the importance of macro data and cross-asset positioning in short-term crypto trading conditions.