Ledger's CTO Warns About Quantum Challenges for Bitcoin

Ledger's CTO, Charles Guillemet, warned that the main quantum challenge for Bitcoin is the migration of the ecosystem if quantum computing becomes relevant, not the immediate threat to its cryptography. This process could require years of research and development. Guillemet raised three questions about the transition: which post-quantum signature scheme to adopt, what changes it would require to the protocol, and how to transfer existing coins. He proposes SHRINCS, a draft BIP that seeks a balance between security and efficiency in wallets. Verification is crucial, as it affects the size of transactions and can increase synchronization costs. The biggest challenge is managing the state of wallets, as the compact route uses one-time keys and requires counters that do not roll back. If the state is lost, SHRINCS allows for a stateless route, although with penalties in efficiency. Guillemet emphasizes that managing multiple UTXOs and counters introduces new risks, and that key generation can be slow. There are also capabilities that would not be retained, such as unenhanced BIP32 derivation. Choosing the signature scheme could be the easiest part, while adapting wallets and migrating existing coins represents the biggest challenge.

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