Musk Predicts Future of AI Development: Surpassing Human Intelligence in 5 Years, Humans No Longer Dominant in 10 Years

Elon Musk reiterated and refined the timeline for AI development, predicting that within about 5 years, the overall intelligence of AI could surpass the total human intelligence. In about 10 years, humans may no longer be dominant, with the intelligence gap far exceeding that between chimpanzees and humans. He pointed out that AI can perform better in almost every aspect except for being 'human' itself. Musk believes the most likely outcome of AI development is an 'astonishingly abundant era,' where robots and AI can produce goods and services far beyond human consumption capabilities, allowing anyone to have whatever they desire. By around 2036, money may no longer be important, and governments could directly issue checks to citizens due to a surge in output, with deflation more likely to occur than inflation, potentially rendering traditional taxation and redistribution logic ineffective. He acknowledged a risk of about 10-20% of human extinction due to AI, but believes the momentum of development is unstoppable, reaching a 'philosophical conclusion': if it cannot be stopped, one should join in and enjoy the journey.

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